This blog called the Euro's demise correctly - Now for fragmentation

At this time one week ago this blog correctly predicted that last week would prove the final crunch point for the Euro, read here. It was perhaps fitting that it was this blogger who stood almost entirely alone in discerning the exact moment of the euro's demise, after all I have been blogging almost daily on the certainty of its collapse since its creation, first on the Financial Times Forums and over the past several years on Ironies and Ironies Too. In the latter years, as I have been forced to try to adapt to an azerty keyboard, the punctuation of my posts has not always been as I intended and I appreciate my regular readers' forbearance. Chaos will be the rule over the coming period of change. Pay no attention to the predictions of those now in power who have ever asserted that this supposed unthinkable catastrophe could ever occur. Democracy must somehow eventually emerge, perhaps in smaller units at first, the "Fragmentation" previously predicted on this blog, see my New Year's posting for 2010 linked here. As a parting post, however, that is not the particular one I have chosen to quote in full regarding all the always perfectly foreseeable dangers that now lie before us. Instead I have chosen one from last March on Britain's election campaign, for it highlights the real difficulty the EU 27 former nations now face. Our corrupt and lying politicians and the political parties which they thoughtlessly and unconscionably serve are the real villains, we would be best if they could be deprived of any role in preparing a way ahead. All my other posts serve as evidence of this dreadful, albeit sometimes well-intentioned, EU project, the archives remain available at present, unlike all my predictions as NM on the FT Forums!.

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Thursday, March 25, 2010

The poison from Political Parties.

Any rational person, watching the proceedings during Prime Minister Questions and the Budget Statement that immediately followed in the chamber of the House of Commons in Westminster yesterday afternoon, who was aware of the realities regarding the governance of the former nation of Great Britain and the true state of its economy, could only conclude that the only proper place for those participating in such a farcical scam would be jail. Party politics, as developed in the Constitutional Democracy that governed the independent sovereign state which was Great Britain and Northern Ireland, up until the enactment of the European Communities Act in 1972, delivered a form of alternating party democracy to the nation which served it well and thus compensated for the non-democratic features essential in a whipped parliamentary system. In the "post-democratic" era (a phrase tellingly now in frequent usage within the EU) the party system sends only corrupt individuals to Government or other positions of power, as no person with honour or integrity would demean themselves by joining the thoroughly rotten political parties who control all access to such positions of power, whether within Westminster or the EU. Only the electorate can address this problem by refusing to vote for any candidate from the three main parties in the forthcoming election. A system of direct democracy along Swiss lines might give hope that the deep sickness in Britain's system might eventually be turned around. Fragmentation or worldwide totalitarianism will be the alternative non-democratic outcomes.

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Thanks for bearing with my ramblings. When points need making or confusion reigns, check back to this site, I may have points to make but the saga of the euro at present seems to be at an end, for once the MSM can be relied upon to provide the detail if not pinpoint the underlying realities!

EU fragmentation has begun!

This blog has long predicted that fragmentation will be the biggest danger as the EU collapse accelerates. There never were any guarantee that once the EU cracked apart all countries would revert to their previous national borders, and as always in Europe, it only needs a couple of small border changes within or between countries for the destabilising effects to mushroom into a continental crisis.

Such was ever the danger with the dangerous madness that has been the EU.

The report on the fragmentation from ekathimerini is linked here, this blog's warnings are here.

Fragmenation nears! Der Spiegel searches for some truth behind EFSF rumours.

The latest Der Spiegel article seeking to throw some light on what the EFSF is likely to become offers little information, other perhaps than that ahead of tomorrow's Bundestag vote noobody is prepared to say anything useful. Read it here, the following are the concluding paragraphs:

Clarity on the euro zone's plans is not likely to come soon, despite a Wednesday warning from European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet that "now is the time for effective action, implementation, verbal discipline and a stronger team spirit." Several more member states must still approve the EFSF and the process isn't expected to be completed until the second half of October.
And once it is, there are, it would seem, several more questions to be addressed. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso hinted as much during his state of the union speech on Wednesday morning.
"If we do not move forward with more unification, we will suffer more fragmentation," he said in Brussels. "I think this is going to be a baptism of fire for a whole generation."

Fragmentation, there's that word, used often on this blog to describe what will inevitably be the follow-up to the EU, read here. Do not imagine for one moment that after this monumental failure, countries will quietly and automatically slip back behind their pre-Common Market borders, the mess unleashed is far too severe for that kind of simplicity - fragmenation has always been the risk, it is a pity the federalists would not accept repeated warnings as issued from these pages and elsewhere down the years.

Globalisation or Fragmentation!

I hope my readers have a happier 2010 than I can presently possibly envisage for them. The referendum called by Iceland's President on his country's individual citizens having to accept liability for their nation's incredible debt is a grim warning for us all on what now lies ahead. The West's major currencies have been trashed by self-serving and often corrupt politicians desperate to spend ever more in a thoughtless pursuit of the continuance of their positions for what appears the sole primary purpose of maximising their perks and pensions. This seems particularly true of UK parliamentarians and almost all in the employ or "supposed service" of the EU. Gordon Brown and his now apparently bullied and servile cabinet think nothing of committing ever more fantastic sums in pursuit of projects they have no potential to ever see completed. The EU with no responsibility for raising the funds it blithely commits for its scary social schemes and restrictive legislation now possesses a President who appears intent on going even further in this clearly wrongheaded direction. Western currencies are becoming ever more worthless as those responsible for their expenditure become ever less accountable to the small property owners who will eventually, I believe, stubbornly refuse to support committing their hard earned savings to the sewer. Iceland will be a beacon of hope as this New Year begins. Maintaining an ever more global monetary means of exchange and commerce will require pan-totalitarianism. The likely alternative of unplanned national fragmentation already largely accomplished in Belgium and well underway in the U.K., is scary but might carry the best chance for future individual liberties. (A shorter comment to this effect on a news item on the Iceland crisis was rejected for publication by the online edition of the London Times yesterday. I thought the point should be aired somewhere, hence this rare post).

France's Tax Threats Against Belgium Signal Extreme Danger

The quite extraordinarily aggressive attitude of the President of France and his delegation against his neighbouring country of Belgium was the only truly significant factor of substance to emerge from this week's European Council meeting.

Belgium has been on the verge of falling apart for two years and survives mostly because it hosts the evil EU. The French speaking portion of the country Wallonia is therefore already looking towards France with considerably more interest than that of mere close neighbour.

One report on the substance and nature of the threats is best gleaned from this report that appeared yesterday in Zero Hedge, linked here.

The present attitude of the French Government is reminiscent of that of Cardinal Richelieu towards La Rochelle during the siege of 1627. La Rochelle was rich from trade with the new world, Richelieu fortified Brouage down the coast to contain the wealth he later expected to accrue, but when the siege was done with some 75% of its inhabitants slaughtered, the wealth and trade had disappeared with it. Arguably France struggled to ever recover from that folly of jealous greed disguised as a religious theological difference.

The village in Belgium, complete with socialist mayor (apparently an almost equal affront in President Hollande's eye) is home to other wealthy families from France, including the owners of the Auchan Hypermarket chain whose aisles across France seem brim full this Christmas season compared to those of some of their struggling competitors when noted by this infrquent shopper.

This blog has constantly warned that fragmentation of the old nation states could be the most dangerous means of the EU's inevitable demise. In this age of austerity I had never imagined that tax equalization could prove the spark in the tinder box for such disputes.

Belgium is in a poor situation to offer resistance against this French assault, were I a rich film star or owner of a prospering supermarket chain, I believe I would now be seeking another, home beyond the EU itself.

Mainstream politicians face outrage all across the EU!

The True Finns tonight forced a confidence vote in the Parliament in Helsinki, which the government won by only 116 votes to 73. The Northern League in Italy, where party leader Umberto Bossi, in a first sign of the expected EU fragmentation, long forecast on this blog, (and this week threatened his own currency for North Italy only,) caused many problems for the Monti oppression in the Rome Parliament  this afternoon.

Other problems arose in Hungary, as reported by the FT here, while the Netherlands' government is also expected to experience difficulties, as the depths of the disasters and economic incompetence perpetrated by the EU, becomes increasingly clear to all entrapped in the democratically cleansed former EU nation states.

Paul Krugman's four ways out of the Eurocrisis

The interesting article covering eight pages may be read in portions from the links in the quote below, or in full from the link from the name of the Nobel prize-winning economist:

"As I see it, there are four ways the European crisis could play out (and it may play out differently in different countries). Call them toughing it out; debt restructuring; full Argentina; and revived Europeanism." Paul Krugman

As Mr Krugman makes clear, the outcome for different countries in the Euro may not all fall into the same category, a statement which on its own confirms the Euro as we have so far known it is doomed.

Another more substantial flaw in the entire analysis, in my opinion, is that it is restricted to looking at the Euro in isolation, rather than as an integral part of the global economy. Thus the analysis on a Full Argentina solution, for example, is weakened by the very weakness of the US Dollar, itself aggravated by the dagger of the unresolved property price fiasco. A consideration of a cure for the Euro should be set against an alternative internationally traded world currency not steeped in its own problems, yet none such exist as evidence by China's moves to correct inflationary forces last week.

As the Swiss Franc is presently the sole well-run currency that could be considered as a template the question must become one of how to restore stability and maintain purchasing power against resources needed by humanity in a globalised world, fragmentation to Swiss Confederation sized national units hardly seems practical! Read also Sound Money, New Bretton Woods, House Price Crash etc.

Treasures from the threads - Number twenty-four

In response to an incredibly weak article by Shadow Chancellor George Osborne in the Telegraph this morning, linked here, came the following: My dear George... We need a (massive) ground-shift rethink on how to run Blighty, if we are going to see any turnaround from this gawd-awful mess that Neue Labour has steered us autopilot in to... (One of my favourite sayings is... “Exactly what has America done for us?”) The ‘Americanization’ of our eating standards, the dumbed down broadcast media, and our teenagers obsession with all that is so vacuously, smiley Emotocon driven that is Facebook/Playstion3... all they aspire to is to be ‘Peaches/Amy’ clubbing like...i.e. a cretinous drug and boozed taking selabrittie über alas... (oh deary me)... And what with the imminent ‘Halloween’ now a new supermarketing driven spending opportunity, slipped betwixt Xmas and Easter...just see the look of joy on the mega queue bearing consumers... then dial in the Haymarket card driven Fathers Day, Mothers Day, Errant Father’s Day, Dysfunctional Daughter’s Day... And finally congrats on Your Completed Divorce Day... and what we have is anything but the joys of happy communal spirited Brit peeps living the ‘dream’ on the McBarrett built graffiti ridden suburban streets... Dial in the never ending b#llsh#t that is the legislation of the Neue Labour nanny state, added to which we have the mandates of the EEC... and you quickly realise... that politics as we currently understand them are failing the common people on mass... and like never before. Question Time with Dimbleby proves that the masses are collectively starting to wake-up though.... and there disquiet is starting to more regularly appear. In these times of seismic change (muck like the industrial revolution of the late 18th Century).... I can assure you ‘true’ accountability, best value for money and investment in anything less than brilliantly well thought through will be punished severely come voting time... (So think on that before you fill the media void with light-weight drivel) Finance is going to be driven by what energy we can command, home grown... and geopolitically things are rapidly moving on that score fast... During 2008 we have seen two things happen. First, and probably most importantly, the resurrection of the Nation-State - shifting the global balance between the state and commercial business. Second, it’s redefined the global geopolitical system, opening the door to a resurgence of Russian power and revealing the underlying fragmentation of Europe and inherent weaknesses of NATO. (And as we all scramble to survive and compete in an increasingly asset depleted world expect the survival of the fittest attitudes to override) The most important manifestation of this is here in Europe. In the face of Russian power, there is no longer a united European position. And though on the surface during the last few weeks of financial crisis, we Europeans sorta coordinated, but as the Irish proved we no longer act as one. After the summer of 2008, it is no longer fair to talk about Europe as a single entity, about NATO as a fully functioning alliance, or about a world in which the nation-state is obsolete. The nation-state was the only institution that worked...and McBruin has always been a key architect of that... (PS: Do let Dave know General Election soonest please!!) Posted by Peter Stone on October 29, 2008 11:48 AM

Fragmentation - UN's highest court opines Kosovan Independence as "Legal";;;; Isle of Wight next perhaps.

The report from the NY Times is here. A quote: Reading the nonbinding opinion, whose political consequences could reverberate far beyond Kosovo, Hisashi Owada, president of the International Court of Justice, said that international law contained no “prohibition on declarations of independence” and consequently that Kosovo’s declaration “did not violate international law.” Great news for the many individual parts of the ex-Nations of the EU., but not for peace!

If Scotland splits off and the EU fragments - Who can be English?

Today I feel compelled to raise two apparently entirely different matters, the connection of which only hit me right between the eyes this sunny Sunday morning.

The first was a post on Orphans of Liberty , with perhaps the best blog posting title of all time by a poster named, Quiet_Man, it is "♫ How do you solve a problem like shariah ♫",  linked here.

The second is a report from EU Observer, which I first read last week, and have been chewing on its implications ever since. This is titled "Anti-racism campaigners slam Finnish colour-coded ID cards" which contains this image:

I have blogged in the past on the likely outcome of the EU collapse as being fragmentation, some of which posts may be read from this link,  now we have this evidence that the implications of the problems that such a break up will cause are beginning to be considered in some of the former nation states.

I continue to believe that the Scot's independence is only economically feasible within the structures of a continuing EU, (read more here and here) but were they to gain separation, our British birthrights would thereby become meaningless and those of us with generations of living within the English portion of Great Britain, would presumably have the right to decide who has a right to English nationality, residence and work, and more tellingly who does not!

The scenario spelt out in the preceding paragraph is clearly a potential nightmare with endless opportunities for bloody conflicts. That is the true horror of what the EU has wrought, through its deliberate flouting of both democracy and decency!

The discussion thread on the posting on shariah law, linked above, visibly illustrates the depths of the disaster our membership of the EU has delivered, not just economic ruin, but the destruction of the very foundations of the nationhood that once stood surety for our liberty, security and rights!

Plebgate - Let's confront the true treachery

In the broad sweep of political conspiracies and historical power changing plots and intrigue, "plebgate" (as the swearing at the gates of Downing Street by the former Tory Chief Whip has come to be called), is but a minor ripple in a very small teacup. Consequently, one presumes as a distraction from the real EU crisis, it has grabbed the attention of Britain's lightweight mainstream media this morning read here and here.

The main concern is the imminent collapse or fragmentation of the EU. The removal of Margaret Thatcher by the scheming of Michael Heseltine and Kenneth Clarke, which allowed the treachery of fellow Conservative, PM Edward Heath, to continue to reach its now approaching climax. This is pushed to the forefront of my mind by Maggie Thatcher's welcome recovery from surgery, read here.

Earlier this week on UKIP Uncovered, I posted an extract of a posting on this blog's forerunner, Ironies, from August 2003, which called for a then ill and failing Edward Heath to be offered a pardon in exchange for the names of his co-conspirators in delivering our nation into the hands of its historical continental enemies for its certain economic destruction and subsequent political domination. This is more briefly again quoted here:

With Heath having recently been flown back from Australia due to ill health, would it not be timely, sensible and a matter of the utmost urgency to now grant him immunity from the possibility of prosecution for his known treasonable actions. In exchange we should demand a detailed explanation of his motives and full details regarding his Continental co-conspirators and their possible next targets in the attempted destruction of our economy, so that we are able, while still just barely surviving as a nation state, to belatedly take some preventative measures to ensure that their schemes, rapidly reaching fruition with the pending Constitution, can at last be thwarted.

posted by Martin at 8/28/2003 06:49:00 AM

That chance to get closer to the truth was then apparently ignored. This week a similar opportunity arises with the news of ex-PM Margaret Thatcher's welcome recovery from her operation. In the archives of her Foundation, given the tremendous foresight we know this formidable lady possesses, there may already be set out full details, as she knew them, of the part played in her downfall by  Heseltine, (in Germany on the evening of the eve of her ousting) Clarke and others.

What may not be known is how Margaret Thatcher, herself, feels as to how those complicit in this probable treason should be dealt with by the nation once EU exit is achieved. Her views on how John Major, whose treachery at Maastricht and benefit from the Heseltine putsch, also makes her opinion on his proper eventual fate of more than a little interest to her countrymen and women!

Those presently in control of the once honourable Conservative Party are the heirs to these dubious dealings. Whether Cameron, Osborne or Mitchell, they are thus beneath our contempt; not least for their own inaction once becoming beneficiaries of the power (for which they plotted, salivated and lusted) was attained. 

Why has the EU become a Popperian tyranny?

   Moody's negative outlook announced today for the credit ratings for the supposed most prosperous EU northern national economies, even including Germany, MUST mark an EU crisis turning point.

   Many years ago this blogger proposed that the Swiss Constitution provided an ideal blue print for a democratic grouping of Europe's nations wishing to form a closer trading union. That was ignored. The years in between have been wasted.

    My recording of a question to Debating Europe for some EU Presidents and perhaps EU Commissioners, at a planned public debate for next October, reflects that shameful reality and is pasted at the foot of this posting.

    The Swiss Confederation recognises four languages, the strong autonomy of its Cantons - co-incidentally numbering roughly the same number as EU member states, its strong direct democracy with protections for specific linguistic and cantonal sensibilities, a guiding star chamber of seven ministers at confederate level, a federal parliament, provisions for regular constitutional changes, plus the longest history of democracy within Europe all combine to make it the perfect blue-print for an EU Constitution!

   Temporary modifications could be established for an interim emergency EU arrangement, prior to establishing a full EU Constitution subject to individual national referendums contemplating exclusion in the event of a NO vote.

   The only alternative this blogger can foresee is widespread fragmentation during and after years of economic decline across the EU, not necessarily within former national boundaries, with all the well known risks of such an occurence as Europe's troubled history has demonstrated over and over again.

 

The poison from Political Parties.

Any rational person, watching the proceedings during Prime Minister Questions and the Budget Statement that immediately followed in the chamber of the House of Commons in Westminster yesterday afternoon, who was aware of the realities regarding the governance of the former nation of Great Britain and the true state of its economy, could only conclude that the only proper place for those participating in such a farcical scam would be jail. Party politics, as developed in the Constitutional Democracy that governed the independent sovereign state which was Great Britain and Northern Ireland, up until the enactment of the European Communities Act in 1972, delivered a form of alternating party democracy to the nation which served it well and thus compensated for the non-democratic features essential in a whipped parliamentary system. In the "post-democratic" era (a phrase tellingly now in frequent usage within the EU) the party system sends only corrupt individuals to Government or other positions of power, as no person with honour or integrity would demean themselves by joining the thoroughly rotten political parties who control all access to such positions of power, whether within Westminster or the EU. Only the electorate can address this problem by refusing to vote for any candidate from the three main parties in the forthcoming election. A system of direct democracy along Swiss lines might give hope that the deep sickness in Britain's system might eventually be turned around. Fragmentation or worldwide totalitarianism will be the alternative non-democratic outcomes.

Evil, Egocentric Europeanism!

On Tuesday, only two days ago, I blogged on one way that the EU could reverse its dangerous slide towards tyranny and embrace democracy, yesterday and today the British Prime Minister has chosen instead to continue on the non-democratic route taken by all those who have recently held this office, cast aside our historical ties with English speaking independent nations across the globe and instead resume the navel gazing that considers nothing beyond the confines of the corrupted and ever weaker and less relevant European sphere of activities.

At least Cameron in his two day meeting with Nordic States, read here, has included our non-EU neighbours but like the earlier doomed EFTA, such a grouping will eventually fall into the clutches of a non-democratic centralised European tyranny the form of which is already beginning to take shape.

First, no doubt, will probably come an absorbtion by the Netherlands and France of the former state of Belgium, facilitated by a Belgian national as EU Council President and presumably leaving a cross between the Vatican City and District of Columbia in Brussels, where EU officials can freely engage in whatever excesses they choose while actually controlling the supposed "authorities". Their day is unlikely to last long, however, as without any democratic constraints economic governance will be imposed on the peripheral EU bankrupts by the centralised middle which will eventually fully control every mainland economy along the lines of the German economic model.

Cameron should be instructing his Foreign Office to make approaches to governments in Canada, Australia and New Zealand to see how pressure can jointly be exerted to salvage the world trading economy by friendly pressure on the US to both reduce government spending and tackle the US property price emergency.

Trying to seduce our Nordic neighbours and thus apparently accepting a complete breakdown and resulting fragmentation as inevitable hardly seems like statesmanship!