Sunday, January 16, 2011

Paul Krugman's four ways out of the Eurocrisis

The interesting article covering eight pages may be read in portions from the links in the quote below, or in full from the link from the name of the Nobel prize-winning economist:

"As I see it, there are four ways the European crisis could play out (and it may play out differently in different countries). Call them toughing it out; debt restructuring; full Argentina; and revived Europeanism." Paul Krugman

As Mr Krugman makes clear, the outcome for different countries in the Euro may not all fall into the same category, a statement which on its own confirms the Euro as we have so far known it is doomed.

Another more substantial flaw in the entire analysis, in my opinion, is that it is restricted to looking at the Euro in isolation, rather than as an integral part of the global economy. Thus the analysis on a Full Argentina solution, for example, is weakened by the very weakness of the US Dollar, itself aggravated by the dagger of the unresolved property price fiasco. A consideration of a cure for the Euro should be set against an alternative internationally traded world currency not steeped in its own problems, yet none such exist as evidence by China's moves to correct inflationary forces last week.

As the Swiss Franc is presently the sole well-run currency that could be considered as a template the question must become one of how to restore stability and maintain purchasing power against resources needed by humanity in a globalised world, fragmentation to Swiss Confederation sized national units hardly seems practical! Read also Sound Money, New Bretton Woods, House Price Crash etc.

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