Monday, October 03, 2011

Where to now that Greece, has again, missed all its targets?

Listening to news reports this morning nobody yet knows the answer to the question raised in this posting's headline. In seeking answers I would point readers to this comment, written by a Greek writer with a financial background on Covering Delta, linked here, from which this is a quote:

What is more likely is that Greece will be dealt with in isolation as a “special case,” which will only lead to more dumping of Spanish and Italian debt (and consequently higher borrowing costs for these governments that could finally push them out of the bond markets entirely), and further decapitalization of the banking sector. Another possibility is that rioting in Greece gets so out of control that the government finally collapses, and a new government is elected that unilaterally defaults on the debt. I should remind readers that just because this last scenario seems “illogical” to the naked eye does not make it any less probable. The size of the debt problem is so large, and the interests of the parties needed to solve it so disparate, that coming to some sort of structured resolution isn’t simply a matter of exercising “good judgement.” Sometimes the scope of a problem overwhelms even the most qualified and well-intentioned people’s abilities to solve it. The global debt crisis may very-well be just such a problem.

This is not an exact science. It is impossible to know how the situation in Greece, or the Eurozone for that matter, will play out. The only thing that can be said for certain is that a country with officially over 150% debt-to-GDP, a budget deficit at or above 8.5% of GDP, an economy contracting at 5.5% of GDP, and prohibitively high borrowing costs (the yield on 1-year Greek government bonds has reached as high as 130%) is bankrupt.

As and when I can find intelligent comment on the next likely developments, I will post links to this blog, while trying to avoid the knee jerk reactions of the politicians who have (it appears quite deliberately) created this situation.

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