Opinion Poll warning for the French Presidential Elections
The following report in the New York Times this morning, linked here, is hugely confusing if you read this quote:
The Ifop/Fiducial poll of 1,638 eligible voters conducted March 11-12 found Mr. Sarkozy would garner 28.5 percent support if the first round, set for April 22, were held today, compared with 27 percent for Mr. Hollande. Mr. Sarkozy trailed Mr. Hollande in a projected second-round runoff in the same poll by 9 percentage points, 54.5 percent to 45.5 percent.
With a margin of sampling error of roughly 2 percentage points, the result put the two candidates virtually neck and neck. Previous polls put Mr. Hollande about 5 percentage points ahead in the first round.
Only the second round numbers have any real significance. Hollande at present looks like walking it!
Labels: French elections