Monday, July 25, 2011

Euro Group's fudged deal falters as Chaos looms in the EU!

The Economist Magazine, hardly a haven of EU scepticism, has a summary of the further deep mess in which the Euro countries have now landed themselves in an analysis titled "Containment Breached"   which includes this statement:

The only ways to break to the cycle are through large reductions in debt levels or through greater fiscal transfers that cushion economies against the impact of austerity. Last week's deal was hailed for its boldness, but in terms of actual reductions in debt burdens, only Greece's obligations were involved, and those look likely to be cut too little to put the Greek economy back on a sustainable footing.

Yet a posting to a Reuters blog, actually reckons that Greek debt will increase, read here, as follows:

The IMF also forecast that the country’s debt/GDP ratio would peak next year at 172 percent of GDP. To calculate a new debt/GDP ratio, therefore, it is only necessary to add the unanticipated extra debt. That is what is done in the Breakingviews analysis to produce a new figure of 179 percent

The net result, as many other postings across Google make clear, is that the bond roll-over will most likely not be taken up by many bond-holders, while the offer of a 21% haircut has nevertheless made a Greek Default a racing certainty.

Yet David Cameron and George Osborne maintain that the Euro Group Leaders are now on the right track!!

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