Friday, March 18, 2011

Voting intentions update on the only EU voters who now matter!

The following, showing the reasons for Merkel's panic, is from Reuters, linked here:

By Annika Breidthardt
BERLIN, March 18 (Reuters) - Support for Germany's anti-
nuclear Greens has risen sharply since the Japanese crisis,
putting Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives in danger of
losing a regional stronghold next week, a poll showed on Friday.
The Deutschlandtrend poll also showed that more than two
thirds of respondents believe Merkel's decision this week to
close down seven nuclear power plants for safety checks was an
election stunt.
Merkel's CDU faces three state elections this weekend and
next, including a March 27 vote in Baden-Wuerttemberg which the
party has ruled for more than 60 years and which is also home to
one of Germany's oldest nuclear power plants.
The poll put the Greens at 24 percent in Baden-Wuerttemberg,
up three percentage points from only a week ago when a huge
earthquake triggered a tsunami and the crisis at Japan's
Fukushima nuclear complex.
Together with their likely coalition partner the Social
Democrats, who were steady at 22 percent, they would be ahead of
the current Baden-Wuerttemberg coalition of CDU and liberal Free
Democrats (FDP), the parties of Merkel's federal government.
Merkel suspended her unpopular nuclear policy in reaction to
the Japanese crisis, shutting down the seven oldest nuclear
plants including one in Baden-Wuerttemberg.
But the poll showed her CDU dropping three percentage points
to 39 percent in the state, one of Germany's richest. The FDP
lost half a percentage point to 5.5 percent, just above the 5
percent it must achieve to enter the state parliament.
Last month the CDU lost the Hamburg state election
disastrously, further reducing Merkel's sway over the Bundesrat
upper house, whose composition depends on the relative strengths
of parties in the regional assemblies.
 Merkel's majority in the Bundesrat vanished last year after
the CDU failed to hold onto North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's
most populous state. Loss of Baden-Wuerttemberg would deliver a
big blow to Merkel's authority, analysts say.
At a national level, the Greens gained 5 percentage points
from a week earlier to reach 20 percent, according to the poll.
However, pollsters said survey results were more volatile
than usual due to the emotional shock of Japan's disaster.
Merkel's move to reverse last year's decision extending the
life of the nuclear stations has drawn scorn from the opposition
which says she is merely trying to avoid a major electoral
setback in the regional votes this month.
This allegation was reflected in the poll, with 68 percent
of respondents saying they believed it was an election stunt.
The poll said 26 percent saw it as a credible change of policy.
The CDU also faces a tough challenge from a resurgent
hardline Left Party in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on
Sunday, where it now holds power with the Social Democrats.
Voter disillusionment may also mean the far right National
Democratic Party could enter the state parliament there.
Below is a table of Federal and Baden Wuerttemberg polls,
according to results released by the ARD television channel:
(in percent, changes in percentage points)
CDU                   35 (unch)         39 (-3)
SPD                   28 (unch)         22 (unch)
GREENS                20 (+5)           24 (+3)
FDP                    5 (-1)          5.5 (-0.5)



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