Mortgage walkaways - the next crisis!

What starts in the USA soon spreads across the Atlantic as we learned in the ongoing sub-prime mortgage inspired credit crunch and Britain's developing bankruptcy and national debt default. As I predicted the problem several months ago and on several different occasions, I chose to call the action "walkaways", or described those involved as "mortgagees handing back the keys". The US has chosen the term "Strategic Mortgage Defaults" read here. The following extract from that article describes the situation:

The number of strategic defaults is far beyond most industry estimates — 588,000 nationwide during 2008, more than double the total in 2007. They represented 18% of all serious delinquencies that extended for more than 60 days in last year’s fourth quarter.

Strategic mortgage defaults are nothing more than a very calculated financial maneuver primarily by people with high credit scores. These people are literally walking away from their homes, and the mortgages on those homes, with little to no warning or indication of stress typically identified by increased delinquencies on the mortgage payment or other credit payments.

Why are people doing this? To fully understand the reasoning behind people strategically defaulting, we need to understand why people bought these homes and took out these mortgages in the first place. The likely result, as predicted in the same article is another crisis, quote: Have loan officers, bank examiners, and regulators factored these strategic defaults into their financial models and loan loss reserves? Rest assured, the thought of strategic mortgage defaults was not incorporated into a bank risk model prior to writing the loan. Now loan officers, bank examiners, and regulators are likely working overtime to incorporate the actuality of this phenomena creating a vicious cycle downward for housing just as the actual lending practices and accompanying purchases of homes drove the housing market higher over the last decade. Did Secretary Geithner incorporate this phenomena into the Bank Stress Tests? Not if we checked the default assumptions on HELOC (Home equity lines of credit) relative to the actual statistics. Have UK politicians considered the likely impact of similar actions in the UK. I earlier predicted such defaults would kick in when price falls began to exceed 20 per cent, a point now reached and with the next downward plunge about to commence as the currency tumbles and Schedule D property taxes look certain to return as one of the few sources for government revenue, a rout to sell at any price appears a possibility. Those walking away from unaffordable mortgages and their homes will start to be such a force they themselves will become a factor not to be ignored. As the non-resignation of Baroness Scotland, supported by the Prime Minister, this evening clearly illustrates, the ministers and leader of this UK administration have not one single moral principle in their make-up. Their financial ignorance in the face of the obvious fact that money has been their sole obsession for many, many years, makes their incompetence and lack of any foresight in the area of economics even more incredible.