George Bush and Iran

Coming back from Crawford, Texas, things must look a little bit more encouraging for President George W Bush. While the world's media crow at the huge setback for the Israeli Defence Forces and Prime Minister Olmert, the EU would seem to have walked into a trap while typically and unthinkingly boasting of the undefined EU now providing the backbone for UNIFIL in Southern Lebanon. This move would seem to have also both effectively robbed Iran of the Hezbollah leverage on Israel (and therefore the USA) and freed the IDF for any later necessary real defence. Meanwhile if ever there could have been a more potent message than the devestated Southern Beirut and Lebanon to President Assad of Syria of the consequences of too close a relationship with Teheran, then I cannot imagine how dreadful such might be. NATO continues its deployment in Helmand province in Afghanistan (on the SE Iranian border) where this weekend the eighth British soldier this month met his death. The Daily Telegraph and British TV media reported the British abandonment of their Iraqi Amarah base apparently to head deeper into the desert but nearer the Iranian border though the blogosphere, probably more accurately, thinks it may have been a rout. The present build-up around Iran seems to be as carefully planned between Bush and Blair as was the deployments many months before the Iraqi invasion. It was a pity planning for the later consequences was so poor in comparison. Asked a month ago if President Chirac of France could have been conned into putting France at the head of a 7,000 strong EU force making up half of UNIFIL to hold off Hezbollah while Bush and Blair confront the nuclear issue with Iran as the UN deadline expires - I would have offered long odds indeed. Viewed from that point of view this is strategic policy at its very best, but is it true, was that the intent and if so, will the continuation be as striking? The Straits of Hormuz, where torpedoes have already been fired by Iran, could be a lethal choke on the West's main oil supplies. Passenger Cruises seem to continue to the old RAF base on Masira Island in Oman, so my present speculations may still be spurious if not premature. A confrontation with Iran, potentially involving British armed forces, could however provide Tony Blair with the perfect excuse to defer standing down as PM in favour of his lamentable, no hope too Scottish Chancellor. The fact that the 8/26 airline bombing plot must have been known about by Blair before his departure to Barbados, would seem to confirm that the egotistical department-hopping fellow-failed Scot, Dr John Reid hugged the publicity with his leader's consent. Brown seems set to become a Rab Butler! But what has history in store for George W Bush - we have two years still to wait before that even begins to become clear!