Miliband's unsubstantiated bluster and the facts

In The Guardian, linked here, we are informed as follows: Britain's "red lines" over a new EU treaty are not only holding but getting stronger, Foreign Secretary David Miliband said. Open Europe have issued a FACTUAL paper showing the truth is exactly the opposite, linked here, from which comes this quote: 1) The red lines are not going to work. The red lines are unlikely to be effective in preventing the kind of developments in the EU which the UK seeks to avoid, for the reasons set out in detail below. 2) The red lines are not even new, and so can’t be used as an excuse to back out of a referendum. The four red lines are essentially the same as in the original Constitution. Two of the red lines (social security and foreign policy) are more or less identical to their equivalents in the original EU Constitution, and could not be used as an excuse to back out of a referendum. The other two red lines – on the Charter and Justice and Home Affairs - have been tweaked compared to the original. However, the changes do not make any substantive difference. 3) The red lines only cover the ground the Government wants to fight on. The red lines are the issues which the Government wants to focus attention on. They are intended to distract from the many other areas where the Government is handing over more powers to the EU. These include: Majority voting in 60 new areas, covering everything from energy policy to employment law for the self employed. A 30% cut in Britain’s power to block legislation when votes are taken, meaning that more legislation the UK opposes will be passed. A de facto EU Foreign Minister, an EU Diplomatic Service, plus moves to a common defence through a new defence group. A powerful EU President – who could eventually be directly elected, like the US President. New EU powers over our public services – including health and education, public spending and transport. Making it easier for the EU to gain even more powers in the future. The new Treaty would allow EU leaders to move to majority voting in any of the areas covered by unanimity, without even needing to ratify these changes in national parliaments. Prediction: what will Brown do next week? Unless Gordon Brown is seen to have responded to the requests of the European Scrutiny Committee for clarifications he will further alienate a key group of MPs. Brown is therefore likely to at the very least insist on the changes to the Charter protocol and the JHA arrangements which the Committee has suggested. Brown will probably also try to undo the changes to Justice and Home Affairs made in the October draft. The October proposal would catastrophically undermine the “opt-in” arrangement and would deal a disastrous blow to the attempt to avoid a referendum. However, these are the very minimum changes that Brown is likely to seek. With referendum pressure building and his personal authority seen as damaged by most commentators, the PM can ill-afford to be seen to be giving way. In reality the UK has a veto – Gordon Brown can and will insist on much more widespread changes. He will then go on to claim a “historic victory” some time on Friday. As usual, the media should be wary of taking such claims at face value…