Thursday, April 26, 2012

EU political will cannot save Spain.

The following is a very brief extract from an article by Pater Tenebrarum on Acting Man, linked here, which is preferably best read in full:

“The headline numbers on the combined European firewall are as large as €940 billion. This includes €220 billion of funds already committed to Portugal, Ireland and Greece (note that this is the 'theoretical maximum' at the moment, ed.) Germany would guarantee a total of €401 billion, but the amount currently approved by the Bundestag is only €211 billion....Greece would guarantee €20 billion – quite a chunk for a country that has just been bailed out.... Spain would guarantee/owe €176 billion – 16% of GDP and 154% of the projected tax revenues for 2012.”
It follows from the above that if Spain really needs a bailout, the total amount available for the European 'financial firewall' will be much smaller than advertised, since Spain can hardly be expected to bail out itself (although Spain's government has recently decided to get creative with its banks, which are supposed to lend the bank bailout fund the money it needs to bail them out, so you obviously never know).
If all the 'PIIGS' mooted contributions to the ESM were to be subtracted, the total amount available to the ESM would shrink by about one third. Moreover, the ESM will start out with only €80 billion in paid in capital – the remaining €500 billion can be 'drawn upon request' – they are mere guarantees.

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